Does The New York Times Critic's Pick Matter?
This blog was originally published on my LinkedIn.
If you've been to any Broadway opening night, you can almost certainly feel an air of nervous excitement -- amidst the flurry of last-minute touches and the hum of an audience settling in, there's an undercurrent of tension that's about more than just the performance. Soon after final bows, reviews start pouring in. And, even though producers won't always admit it, there's a single stamp of approval that can determine not just the direction of the night but perhaps the next few months: the New York Times Critic's Pick.
Once upon a time, a thumbs-up from the New York Times could keep the lights on, while a thumbs-down meant it was curtains. But fast forward to today, where anyone with a smartphone considers themselves the next Ben Brantley of Broadway, and you have to wonder: in this jungle of opinions, does the professional critic's voice still matter?
I wanted to analyze the trends between shows that have been deemed a Critic's Pick vs. those that haven't, specifically in more recent years. After compiling all of the reviews from the New York Times spanning from 2009 to the present, I explored the relationship between a show's receiving a Critic's Pick and its financial metrics, specifically the Average Ticket Price (ATP), both in the months immediately following the opening and throughout the entirety of its run.
When comparing ATP before a show's opening and its ATP in the 8 weeks immediately following opening, here's what I found:
Shows that received a Critic's Pick saw an increase in ATP of 18%, while shows that didn't receive a Critic's Pick only saw an 8% ATP increase.
Musicals that received a Critic's Pick saw an increase in ATP of 19%, while musicals that didn't receive a Critic's Pick only saw a 10% ATP increase.
Plays that received a Critic's Pick saw an increase in ATP of 17%, while plays that didn't receive a Critic's Pick only saw a 6% ATP increase.
Moreover, within their respective categories, both plays and musicals awarded the Critic's Pick have exhibited higher total ATPs by the end of their run. However, the disparity in ATP between Critic's Pick recipients and non-recipients is more pronounced in musicals, as shown in the attached plot.
The caveats with this broad analysis are plentiful -- as the saying goes, correlation does not imply causation. The dynamics of Broadway's economics and the impact of reviews are influenced by myriad factors beyond the scope of a single accolade. Additionally, it's common practice for producers to offer tickets at lower prices during preview performances. And, obviously, shows that receive the Critic's Pick are often (but not always!) better, likely contributing to a higher ATP independent of the review's impact.
Overall, whether reviews have or will continue to impact the financial status of a show is to be seen. But, as always, we can always continue to blame critics should the curtain fall sooner than expected.
